Oscar Predictions 2017

Thought it’d be appropriate to get in my predictions before the Oscars hit on the 4th. And this year is thrilling simply for the fact this is one of the most wide-open Oscar races in a number of the big categories in a very long time. So without further ado, here are my predictions mixed in with a light sprinkling of my personal opinions. Don’t forget to come back later to see how I fared and more than likely mock how wrong I’m going to be. Lets get to it!

 

Best Picture

Who Will Win:

shape-of-water

The Shape of Water. It has all the momentum and all the Hollywood circle-jerking to take the grand prize for the night. Not that I’d be too upset – Shape of Water is a beautifully poetic movie with some touching things to say and is headed by a true auteur in Guillermo Del Toro. It also just happens to be appropriately Oscar-esque.

Who Should Win:

Dunkirk

 

DunkirkFor more thoughts on what I thought of Nolan’s latest feel free to check out my review, but to put it simply, Dunkirk was not only the most powerful experience I have ever had in a cinema, but it is also a technical masterpiece beyond anything even Nolan has attempted before. For its sheer ambition and technical prowess (even irrespective of the story problems I know most people have with it, even if I personally don’t) I feel Dunkirk should get a little more recognition than it will likely receive.

 

Best Director

Who Will Win:

shape-of-water

Guillermo Del Toro for The Shape of Water. You’re probably going to be seeing this film plenty throughout the night, and its not necessarily undeserved. I adore Guillermo Del Toro as a director (he gave the world Pacific Rim, what else do you want) and if he were to win this will likely be as much of a legacy win as it would be for the film itself. And once again, I wouldn’t be particularly upset.

Who Should Win:

Dunkirk

Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk. As much of a fan of this movie I clearly am, this was actually a lot tougher for me to decide. I loved Get Out and I’ve already outlined my admiration for Del Toro, but I just can’t get past what Nolan has accomplished in this masterclass of film-making. Much like Del Toro I would see this as a bit of a legacy win for his already stellar track-record, even if its almost certainly not going to happen.

 

Best Actor

Who Will Win (and Should Win):

darkest-hour-winston-churchill-gary-oldman

Gary Oldman for The Darkest Hour. It has all the hallmarks of an Academy Award Winning©  Performance – heavy prosthesis, historical figure, long-praised actor and so on. And considering how consistently great Oldman has been throughout his career, its not hard to see him finally nab some golden recognition. Its also just a great performance (not that that’s the most important thing when winning an Oscar), and as much as I loved Kaluuya in Get Out and Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread (and side note, Chalamet had a spectacular scene in Call Me By Your Name even if I don’t think the whole performance is award-worthy) I can’t see anyone trumping Oldman in a fatsuit.

 

Best Actress:

Who Will Win:

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Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriPotentially her best performance in an already standout career, McDormand may finally be nabbing that Oscar gold. Its possible the negative buzz around Three Billboards may weaken her chances, but if people can distinguish the performance from the movie I feel she has this nailed down.

Who Should Win:

THE SHAPE OF WATER

Sally Hawkins from The Shape of Water. As great as McDormand was, I just can’t get past the mesmerising and sensual performance from Hawkins in Shape of Water. Particularly with playing a character without a voice and who must constantly interact with a character in full make-up, Hawkins is utterly stellar and may have made me cry more than once.

 

Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win:

iTonya_08024.JPG

Allison Janney for I, TonyaMetcalf does have an outside chance, but I’ll be surprised if anyone tops this Mother-from-Hell from I, Tonya. It is a great performance, if a little too overplayed, but is compelling and memorable enough to secure the win.

Who Should Win:

screen-shot-2018-02-14-at-6-22-11-pm1

Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread. First time Thread has appeared in running for me, which is a shame for such a detailed and thoughtful film from PTA. My personal preference would have been Manville’s co-star Vicky Krieps who was the biggest performance surprise of the entire year for me, but regardless Manville gave a spectacular and commanding performance and I would love to see some appreciation Phantom Thread’s way.

 

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win:

sam-rockwell-three-billboards-outside-ebbing-missouri

Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. This one is actually rather baffling to me. Maybe Sam Rockwell’s just a super nice guy and everyone in Hollywood wants to see him finally get some recognition (and to be fair he tends to be a great actor), but I just don’t see his performance here in Billboards as that standout. Honestly, I’d give the edge to his co-star Harrelson, but for some reason almost everyone has Rockwell as the favourite.

Who Should Win:

THE SHAPE OF WATER

Richard Jenkins for The Shape of Water. I should clarify as I haven’t seen Florida Project I can’t speak to Dafoe, which leaves for me personally hoping against hope that Jenkins can steal the win from under Rockwell. Subdued and utterly lovable, Jenkins boasts a great performance amongst a stellar cast and much like many other actors this year has a great and largely unrecognised track-record . Its a long shot but I’d love it to happen.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who Will Win:

armie-hammer-call-me-by-your-name-1

Call Me By Your Name. Based off a book comes a touching romantic picture – what’s for the Academy not to love? I personally attribute Name’s success to director Guadagnino and its lead performances,  but I won’t be surprised if its the screenplay that walks away with gold at the end of the night.

Who Should Win:

25mollysgame1-superjumbo

Molly’s GameMy heart says Logan but my mind yells SORKIN. A cracking script that is as Sorkin-esque as you can fathom, Molly’s Game is a wild ride of the world’s wittiest people duking it out with one another, and it is great. As much as it’d be amazing to see Logan win it, much like Name I see its strengths in its direction and performances (which weren’t actually nominated), meaning that SORKINSORKINSORKIN is the personal frontrunner for my heart.

 

Best Original Screenplay

Who Will Win (and Should Win):

Get Out

Get Out. May be the only award Get Out is going to walk away with, but at least the ingenious writing from writer/director Jordan Peele will be recognised. Well deserved and honestly I don’t think any of the other nominees will come close.

 

Best Cinematography

Who Will Win (and Should Win):

Blade Runner 2049

Roger Deakins for Blade Runner 2049. It must be his year. It has to be. If anyone is deserving of finally winning an Oscar, its has to be potentially the greatest cinematographer of all time. As stunning as both The Shape of Water and Dunkirk is, this must be Deakins year.

 

As for the rest:

Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread (It’s literally a film about making costumes)

Best Film Editing: Baby Driver (Edited to music: what more can you want?)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Darkest Hour (Fake jowls reign supreme)

Best Production Design: The Shape of Water (even if Dunkirk is far more deserving)

Best Score: The Shaper of Water (hard fought but well deserved)

Best Song: Remember Me (Coco) (I swear if This is Me wins it tables will be flipped)

Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk (The film is the embodiment of a literal warzone of sound)

Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk (See above)

Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes (Half the cast is actually made in computers – its well deserved)

Best Animated Feature: Coco (Boss Baby can go rot for taking Lego Batman‘s spot)

Best Documentary Feature: Icarus (Out of sheer luck the documentary crew not only stumbled on the story of a lifetime, but also an Oscar)

Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman (Also known as the ‘oh I should see those movies’ category)

Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball (One of the most indulgent shorts ever, but with John Williams and a classic Disney animator behind it, I can’t see this losing)

Best Documentary Short: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 (Easily appeals to Academy voters while at the same time being a great Doco)

Best Live Action Short: DeKalb Elementary (I wish these shorts were more widely available)

 

So there you have it! I look forward to tuning in next week to find out how wrong I will be. Feel free to post your predictions in the comments and if someone’s a secret clairvoyant let me know so I can exploit your talent for profit. Adios!

 

 

 

 

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